The coronavirus pandemic in the United States could be finished as early as mid-November, according to new modeling.
Researchers at the University of Technology and Design in Singapore have created a complex model predicting the exact date of the end of the pandemic in the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries around the world.
According to the data, the United States is on track to be coronavirus-free by November 11, while the United Kingdom may see an end date before September 30.
The model predicts the trajectory of the virus’s spread over time while tracking the actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country.
Predictive modeling from the University of Technology and Design of Singapore estimates that the coronavirus crisis in the United States could end on November 11
The United States has the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world, exceeding 1.6 million cases on Saturday and 95,979 deaths
However, the researchers noted that predictions by nature are likely to be uncertain due to the complexity of the virus as well as other factors, including restrictions and testing protocols in place in a country.
In the United States, changes in forecasts were tracked over a one-week period between May 6 and May 12, and were found to be relatively stable, suggesting a “long time to reach its theoretical end”.
“The estimated US curves for a week together, showing great stability, when we might still want additional policies or actions to further shorten the tail of the curves,” said the report.
The study also found that predictive surveillance in early May showed that the United States – and the second most affected country, Brazil – could “ still suffer ” for the rest of the year if current measures remain in place and without the development of a vaccine.
For Italy, which has already dominated the world in confirmed cases of coronavirus, modeling has shown that it should recover by October 24, starting May 8.
However, scientists note that forecasts are only estimates and are subject to change depending on various factors.
“The model and the data are imprecise to the complex, evolving and heterogeneous realities of different countries over time. Forecasts are inherently uncertain, ”said the report.
“Over-optimism based on certain predictions is dangerous because it can relax our disciplines and controls and cause the virus and infection to reverse, and should be avoided.”
As of Saturday, there were 1,600,937 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States and 95,979 deaths.
This comes as the 50 states began to gradually reopen and ease restrictions after months of foreclosure.
But experts and health officials have since warned that relaxing the restrictions too soon could cause outbreaks.
Earlier this month, the director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, warned that another wave of viruses was “inevitable.”
Model predicts UK pandemic will be over by September 30
As of May 8, the coronavirus pandemic in Italy was about to end on October 24.
Dr Fauci said that reopening cities and states too quickly could unleash an out of control epidemic and reverse efforts to fight the coronavirus.
“You will trigger an epidemic that you may not be able to control,” he warned when testifying before the Senate.
Even with widespread testing and social distancing, health officials have warned that there is no guarantee until a vaccine is developed.
In testimony to the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Work and Pensions, Fauci said scientists are already testing possible vaccines in a phase one clinical trial to move to phase two this summer .
“If we are successful, we hope to find out in late fall and early winter,” he said.
He also said that there were at least eight vaccines in clinical development.
He warned that the tests could have negative consequences, including the death of patients.
“I must warn that there is also the possibility of negative consequences when certain vaccines can actually reinforce the negative effect of the infection,” he said.
He also warned that states would begin to reopen – thereby reducing home stay orders and social distancing – “you will see some cases reappear”.
“ There is no doubt, even in the best of cases, when you step back on mitigation, you will see some cases appear, ” warned Fauci, adding that the United States must be prepared “ when the inevitable return of infections will occur. ”
“We will start to see small spikes that could turn into epidemics,” he noted.